Possible scenario
Strategic No-Show Works
38% Chance
Flavio Bolsonaro’s campaign frames the debate absence as risk management while keeping the race centered on anti-Lula sentiment and security issues. With a 61% implied win probability already priced in, many voters view the missed debate as tactical rather than disqualifying.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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