Possible scenario
Lula Gains Momentum
32% Chance
The missed debate gives Lula a clean closing argument: Flavio is avoiding scrutiny because of his father’s coup conviction and the January 8 legacy. Late-deciding voters and moderate conservatives become more willing to reconsider Lula despite fatigue with his administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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