Possible scenario
Risk-Off Growth Scare
22% Chance
Rather than simply repricing rates higher, investors start treating the yield move as a threat to growth, refinancing and asset valuations. Treasury yields may partially retrace on safe-haven demand, but credit spreads and equity volatility widen.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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