Possible scenario
Officials Calm Markets
27% Chance
Federal Reserve and Treasury officials try to prevent the rate move from becoming a broader financial-stability problem. Markets interpret the communication as a signal that policymakers will tolerate tight conditions but not a disorderly Treasury market.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.6%
- Technology +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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