Possible scenario
Bear Steepening Persists
40% Chance
Investors continue demanding a higher term premium after the 30-year Treasury yield breaches 5.70%, with heavy Treasury supply and sticky inflation data keeping sellers active. The move remains disorderly enough to pressure equities, rate-sensitive sectors and credit, but not severe enough to force immediate official intervention.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.7%
- Technology -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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