Possible scenario
Fiscal Clash Deepens
27% Chance
The attempt to bypass parliament hardens opposition resistance and increases the odds of a no-confidence motion or renewed government paralysis. Investors price a higher probability that the €43 billion savings package is delayed, diluted or reversed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.5%
- Utilities -1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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