Possible scenario
Contained Bond Underperformance
40% Chance
French government bonds continue to lag Bunds and other core European debt, but the move remains an orderly repricing rather than a funding scare. Investors demand extra term premium because of fiscal gridlock, ECB tightening and the budget bypass, while dip-buyers limit forced selling.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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