Possible scenario
Muted Public Aftermath
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a brief news cycle focused on Hastert’s rise to House speaker and the criminal case that exposed sexual abuse allegations. National Republican and Democratic leaders avoid lengthy tributes, reflecting the reputational risk attached to his legacy.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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