Possible scenario
Riots Persist Nationally
30% Chance
Violence continues in several French cities despite arrests and curfews, keeping Jewish residents indoors and forcing more public-facing identity concealment. The impact remains mostly domestic, but tourism, retail foot traffic, and investor confidence in French assets suffer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.