Possible scenario
Order Gradually Restored
42% Chance
French authorities contain the riots through curfews, arrests, and visible protection of synagogues, Jewish schools, and commercial districts. The Jewish community remains cautious, but the immediate security situation improves enough to prevent a broader national shutdown.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.2%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.