Possible scenario
Stock Ban Wins
28% Chance
The stock-trading ban retains bipartisan appeal because members can frame it as an ethics reform before the election. The voter-ID bill proves more divisive and either lacks 60 votes or is stripped from the floor package.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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