Possible scenario
Both Bills Advance
30% Chance
Thune succeeds in keeping most Republicans unified while attracting a handful of Democrats on congressional stock trading restrictions. The voter-ID measure advances because the recent Supreme Court order reduces some procedural and legal hesitation inside the GOP conference.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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