Possible scenario
Parliamentary Confrontation
28% Chance
The Senate treats Altman's refusal as defiance after two reported government-system breaches. Lawmakers escalate with subpoenas, document demands, and public questioning of whether foreign AI providers can safely operate in Australian public infrastructure.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Business Services +0.5%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.6%
- GOOG-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.