Possible scenario
Intermittent Airport Disruption
45% Chance
Saudi authorities keep Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport open between short security halts, while airlines continue selective cancellations and rerouting. This is the most likely near-term path because the airport has reopened repeatedly despite attacks, and neither side has yet shifted the fight decisively to oil infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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