Possible scenario
Containment and De-escalation
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia, Oman, and UN mediators push for a limited aviation de-escalation, while the kingdom reinforces airport defenses. This outcome is plausible because both Riyadh and the Houthis have incentives to avoid a disruption that invites wider retaliation or threatens pilgrimage and business travel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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