Possible scenario
Aviation Escalation
20% Chance
Houthi attacks continue and Saudi Arabia responds with strikes on launch sites in Yemen, turning the aviation disruption into a broader military exchange. The risk is material because the Houthis have already declared an air blockade and have demonstrated ability to interrupt Riyadh operations repeatedly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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