Possible scenario
Incremental Easing Package
45% Chance
Beijing is most likely to extend the existing playbook: lower mortgage costs, looser purchase restrictions, and more local-government inventory purchases. This would signal continued support without a decisive national balance-sheet transfer to households or developers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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