Possible scenario
Forceful National Rescue
25% Chance
A stronger outcome would involve a larger central-government or policy-bank facility to remove unsold housing inventory and stabilize developer financing. This would be a material improvement from prior piecemeal measures and could trigger a short-lived risk-on reaction in China-linked assets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.