Possible scenario
Delay Or Cosmetic Action
20% Chance
Policy deliberations could continue without a large new package, leaving investors disappointed after repeated rounds of underwhelming support. Falling prices and weak presales would remain the dominant signals for households and developers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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