Possible scenario
German Coalition Strains
25% Chance
The ceremony becomes a domestic political weapon for Germany's far right and Ukraine-skeptic factions. Merz remains chancellor, but questions grow over whether his government can sustain aid increases and NATO spending commitments.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.8%
- Finance -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.