Possible scenario
Talks Meet Resistance
25% Chance
UBS or its advisers hold exploratory discussions with large foreign banks, but regulators and governments signal strong reservations. The size of UBS after Credit Suisse, its domestic importance, and resolution-planning concerns make a clean exit from Switzerland difficult.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
Tickers
- UBS-1.8%
- -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.