Possible scenario
Regulatory Bargain Reached
35% Chance
UBS uses the foreign-merger review as leverage in negotiations with Swiss authorities rather than as a near-term plan to leave. Bern adjusts timing, deductibility, or transitional treatment for tougher capital rules while preserving the post-Credit Suisse regulatory framework.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
Tickers
- UBS+1.8%
- +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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