Possible scenario
Regional Rivalry Intensifies
20% Chance
Regional rivals interpret the pact as a containment bloc linking Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan. The most likely stress path is rhetorical escalation and proxy signaling rather than direct interstate war, but markets price a modest Gulf risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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