Possible scenario
Managed Security Integration
45% Chance
The Mecca Defence Pact becomes a practical but limited framework for joint planning, exercises and air-defence coordination. Saudi Arabia uses Turkish and Pakistani support to fill capability gaps while avoiding a direct break with the United States.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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