Possible scenario
Saudi Diversifies Security
25% Chance
Saudi Arabia responds to the U.S. transition by deepening defense, technology, and energy diplomacy with China, while keeping U.S. ties intact. Riyadh uses OPEC+ discipline and alternative security partnerships to increase strategic leverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.0%
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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