Possible scenario
Black Sea Disruption Persists
40% Chance
Russian strikes on Odesa and related port infrastructure continue to limit Ukraine's ability to move wheat, corn and sunflower products through the Black Sea. Zelensky's two-month warning becomes the baseline risk for import-dependent countries in North Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia, with higher freight, insurance and food-security premia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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