Possible scenario
Contained Domestic Friction
20% Chance
Hezbollah and allied factions resist the disarmament timetable through parliament, cabinet pressure, and street mobilization. The Lebanese Armed Forces avoid a broad crackdown, keeping the confrontation mostly political.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.