Possible scenario
Fundraising Stalls
15% Chance
The Gulf funding drive loses momentum as investors question late-cycle AI valuations, power constraints, and SoftBank's track record from Vision Fund bets. This would be a setback for SoftBank's balance-sheet narrative but not a systemic market event.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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