Possible scenario
Managed Royal Visit
45% Chance
The visit remains mostly symbolic, with Madrid and Rabat preserving the post-2022 rapprochement built around Spain's support for Morocco's Western Sahara autonomy plan. Both governments avoid letting Ceuta become a full diplomatic rupture despite nationalist criticism and recent migration tensions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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