Possible scenario
Diplomatic Friction Returns
25% Chance
The royal visit revives Morocco's long-standing objections to Spanish sovereignty over Ceuta and Melilla. Rabat retaliates through diplomatic downgrades or slower practical cooperation while avoiding a full break with Spain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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