Possible scenario
Election Legitimacy Dispute
20% Chance
Opposition groups, civil society monitors, and some EU lawmakers challenge the conduct of the snap elections. This scenario becomes more likely if media access, voter-roll disputes, or pressure on public-sector workers dominate the campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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