Possible scenario
Sullivan Recovers
30% Chance
The Sabato shift marks the high-water point for Democratic optimism, but Sullivan regains ground as Republican and oil-industry-aligned voters consolidate. Alaska's Republican lean and presidential-level partisanship keep the incumbent viable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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