Possible scenario
Labor Movement Broadens
20% Chance
Public-sector unions use the student arrests to widen the dispute into a larger protest against Lecornu's fiscal and labor agenda. Transport, schools, municipal services, and selected industrial sites face rolling stoppages, creating a more visible short-term economic drag.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.4%
- Industrials -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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