Possible scenario
Contained Police Standoff
30% Chance
The Lecornu government maintains a hard security line, but unrest remains concentrated around schools, universities, and a few city centers. The immediate political cost is manageable, though the arrests deepen mistrust between students and the Interior Ministry.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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