Possible scenario
Rerouting Stalemate
23% Chance
The strikes may not trigger immediate retaliation but could convince insurers and shipping lines that normal Hormuz transits are uneconomic. The result is a drawn-out rerouting and insurance shock rather than a decisive military escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
- Industrials -1.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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