Possible scenario
Regional Conflict Widens
27% Chance
The container-ship strikes could trigger a broader military exchange if Washington or Gulf states conclude Iran is intentionally targeting civilian commerce beyond tankers. This would turn a shipping crisis into a regional security shock with immediate oil, credit and volatility spillovers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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