Possible scenario
Convoy Escalation
38% Chance
The most likely near-term response is a U.S.-led maritime security surge rather than immediate full-scale war. Washington, London, Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia expand armed escorts while warning Iran that further attacks will trigger strikes on IRGC naval assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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