Possible scenario
Hezbollah Escalates Fire
20% Chance
Hezbollah chooses a stronger response to the Israeli operation, raising the intensity of rocket, drone, and anti-tank fire across northern Israel. Israel responds with broader strikes and possibly a larger ground perimeter, putting the April cease-fire at serious risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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