Possible scenario
Diplomacy Reasserts Itself
25% Chance
Washington and Paris use the renewed fighting to push both Israel and Lebanon back toward a revised cease-fire implementation plan. The Lebanese Armed Forces and UNIFIL receive a larger monitoring role around Iqlim al-Tuffah, reducing immediate escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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