Possible scenario
Post-Midterm Deal
38% Chance
Trump’s threat is paired with a signal that he wants political space after the midterms to accept a narrower settlement. Tehran, Washington, Israel, Oman, and Qatar converge on a limited ceasefire-and-monitoring package that lets each side claim it avoided capitulation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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