Direct War Escalation

Trump’s annihilation threat is followed by a major military exchange, either because Iran tests U.S. red lines or because Israel and Washington decide to degrade Iranian capabilities before the election aftermath. This is a lower-probability but high-impact path given the recent attacks on U.S. warships and the already widened conflict.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.