Possible scenario
Sharper Hawkish Repricing
20% Chance
Paulson's remarks become part of a broader hawkish communication campaign. Investors conclude that the Fed is more willing to risk slower growth than to tolerate inflation staying above 2%.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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