Possible scenario
Inflation Cools
25% Chance
Inflation data soften enough to make Paulson's comments look more like conditional guidance than a firm commitment. Investors start to expect that the Fed can pause after September's inflation scare without abandoning its 2% objective.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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