Possible scenario
Hawkish Base Case
45% Chance
Markets treat Anna Paulson's comments as consistent with the September dot plot rather than a new shock. The most likely path is another 25 bp hike followed by data-dependent language as the Fed tries to push inflation back toward 2%.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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