Scenario description
Assume some commercial energy cargoes cross the Strait of Hormuz during the final week, but throughput remains intermittent, highly restricted, or dependent on exceptional protection. Model how uncertain deliveries, higher freight and insurance costs, and rerouting affect energy supply and macro risk without equating limited crossings with normalization.
Initial shock
- Oil price+45%
- LNG price+60%
- Freight & shipping cost+30%
Secondary impacts
- Broad equity market-7%
- GDP growth-0.8%