Possible scenario
Paxton Converts Backlash
38% Chance
Ken Paxton’s campaign and allied Republican groups successfully frame James Talarico’s nonbinary God comments as culturally out of step with Texas voters. The issue reinforces GOP turnout among evangelicals and rural conservatives while making some persuadable suburban voters less willing to defect from Republicans.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.