Possible scenario
Frozen Market Persists
38% Chance
Affordability remains the main constraint as mortgage rates, home prices and insurance costs keep buyers sidelined. Low-rate lock-in prevents enough listings from coming to market, so transaction volumes stay depressed without a sharp national price break.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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