Possible scenario
Managed Stabilization Holds
45% Chance
The New York talks become a durable but narrow stabilizer in US-China relations. Both governments keep the AI dialogue focused on accident prevention, military notification and crisis communications rather than resolving export controls or Taiwan disputes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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