Possible scenario
Fragile Implementation
28% Chance
The dialogue survives, but implementation is uneven because Washington and Beijing disagree on what must be reported and how quickly. The mechanism reduces accidental escalation risk at the margin, while strategic competition remains intact.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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