Possible scenario
Export Controls Dominate
17% Chance
The AI dialogue lowers crisis risk but does not slow the technology-denial policies at the center of US-China competition. Washington continues restricting advanced AI chips and model access, while Beijing treats the notification system as separate from industrial policy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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